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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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