🔗 Share this article

Throughout the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the exclusive head of an EU nation to support the Republican candidate. This support was expected, considering Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial notions like population replacement concept and the suppression of journalistic liberties. Observers have noted that Mr Orbán more or less laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

Recently, amid key votes in Hungary merely approaching in six months, the American leader returned some political favors. While Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term presiding over a country he labels an non-liberal system, his political group is behind in the polls. An official trip to Washington resulted in not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Economic Protections

Despite previously lecturing EU countries on the need to eliminate all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening sanctions against states continuing to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump consented to provide a special exemption for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also promised to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest should it encounters any upcoming challenges, particularly since Brussels persists in holding back substantial EU funds to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this agreement remain somewhat murky. However Donald Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to help out like-minded partners as the United States granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Even though Mr Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, the US president's move probably further underlined the international consequences of the coming election, ahead of which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, holds a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to look for steady principles from the Trump White House, and accept the US president’s moves to diminish the European Union. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy US gas and nuclear energy – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to end imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to create a coordinated approach for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums continues to be a major hurdle.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has avoided pledging a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After enduring so many years of trolling, EU officials can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, such as the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a source of shame for the bloc. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its long-term safety.